Adobe and Microsoft were hit by the same US immigration crackdown on Thursday, but Wall Street treated their shares very differently.
Adobe stock (NASDAQ: ADBE) jumped 3.56% to $241.05 on October 8, while Microsoft fell 1.35% to $522.61. Both companies were suspended from the Labor Department’s PERM programme, used for employment-based green cards.
Yet the split suggests investors saw the policy shock as only one part of the story.
Adobe entered the session after a long derating and with evidence that its AI products are beginning to monetise.
Microsoft stock (NASDAQ: MSFT) was caught in a technology sell-off after new reporting challenged estimates of OpenAI’s annualised revenue.
Same green-card restriction does not mean same financial hit
The Trump administration suspended Microsoft, Adobe and several IT-services companies from PERM, blocking new applications and pending cases.
The programme is a key step for many employment-based green cards, but the action does not revoke existing employees’ status or cancel H-1B visas.
Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management told Reuters that “the immediate financial impact on major technology companies may be relatively limited,” although he warned that longer-term consequences for innovation and competitiveness could be greater.
Microsoft has greater political exposure as a major user of skilled-worker immigration programmes. But the restriction itself does not automatically translate into an immediate revenue or profit hit.
That helps explain why investors did not simply sell every affected technology stock.
Adobe stock’s rally looks more like valuation support
Adobe’s 3.6% gain should not be read as investors welcoming the PERM decision. The stock had already been heavily derated as Wall Street debated whether generative AI could weaken its creative-software franchise.
That scepticism has left Adobe far below its 52-week high, creating room for dip buyers when operating data improve.
Its latest quarter offered evidence that AI monetisation is gaining traction.
Adobe reported record quarterly revenue of $6.76 billion, while AI-first annual recurring revenue exceeded $650 million and grew more than 150% from a year earlier.
RBC Capital analyst Matthew Swanson said Adobe’s AI-first and freemium products were showing traction, with positive monetisation trends emerging among converted users. RBC maintained an Outperform rating and a $315 price target.
Adobe also announced an AI-focused partnership with Heathrow Airport on Thursday.
The combination suggests the rally was driven more by valuation, improving AI execution and company-specific news than by the immigration announcement.
Microsoft stock: OpenAI became the valuation catalyst
Microsoft faced the same PERM restriction, but it was also exposed to a second shock.
The Financial Times reported that OpenAI had told investors its annualised revenue was approaching $50 billion in late September, roughly $20 billion below the $70 billion figure reported by media outlets in September.
The gap did not represent a sudden collapse in OpenAI’s business. The discrepancy stemmed from attempts to compare OpenAI with Anthropic, which counts some cloud-partner sales differently.
Even so, investors reacted quickly. Nvidia, Broadcom, Oracle and other AI-linked stocks fell as the Nasdaq dropped 1.25%.
DA Davidson analyst Gil Luria told MarketWatch that the sell-off reflected “undue concern”, arguing that accounting differences rather than deteriorating AI demand explained much of the apparent shortfall.
That matters for Microsoft, which remains closely tied to OpenAI through Azure and its broader AI strategy.
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